With the IMF now warning of the biggest economic crash for 90 years because of the COVID-19 crisis, Bitcoin (BTC) is facing its ‘moment of truth.’
Lockdowns triggering economic catastrophe
On 14 April the IMF published its quarterly World Economic Outlook report, saying the lockdowns due to COVID-19 (coronavirus) are ushering in the worst economic downturn for 90 years, and predicting a staggering USD $9 trillion of losses within a couple of years.
Meanwhile in the UK, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has issued an even scarier warning, saying the country faces the deepest recession for 300 years, with GDP expected to plunge by 35% and 2 million to lose their jobs.
As the true toll of economic damage becomes clear, many are now arguing the actions taken to combat the pandemic are certain to cause far more damage, including mass poverty and millions of deaths, than the virus would have done had it just been left to burn.
Bitcoin’s record correlation with traditional markets
With the world facing an unprecedented economic crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic still raging, and warnings of a possible second wave of infections, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), is now facing something of a moment of truth.
Prior to the crisis, Bitcoin had been assumed by many to be a ‘safe haven’ for investors – sitting in a separate digital world, less affected by real-world political and economic events. However, over the past few months, Bitcoin has reached a record correlation with traditional markets, including the S&P 500 and gold – with the sudden liquidity crisis in global markets appearing to drive confluence across asset classes.
Bitcoin Halving and moment of truth approaches
Now, with next month’s Bitcoin Halving rapidly approaching, we are about to see if the world’s foremost cryptocurrency will be able to achieve the much-anticipated post-halving bull trend.
Though the halving has long split crypto pundits, with some predicting it to be a non-event, and others convinced it will ignite the fuse to a long bull run, we perhaps shouldn’t read to much into Bitcoin’s current close correlation to stock markets and gold.
Back at the start of the 2008/09 Financial Crisis, the price of gold, the traditional safe haven asset, actually dropped 30% over the first six months, but then went on to gain more than 150% over the following three-and-a-half years.
It could be argued that the reason Bitcoin (BTC) hasn’t so far achieved it’s clear ‘safe haven’ potential, is because until this point most investors have simply failed to appreciate the sheer scale of the global economic crash that is now underway.
The unprecedented nature of the lockdowns, and psychological displacement caused – with many people feeling they are on simply on an unexpected holiday, rather than on the precipice of disaster – has obviously clouded judgement and wrong-footed many. But, as the insane scale of the collapse becomes apparent, it could well send investors fleeing to both gold and Bitcoin (BTC).
One thing is for sure. A couple of years from now, the global economy is going to look very different.
All original content featured on this site is © Pentagon Digital Limited, 2020.