Bitcoin’s much anticipated third halving has happened and focused the world’s attention once more on the granddaddy of cryptocurrencies.
Despite the YouTube thought police pulling Cointelegraph’s BTC Halving livestream after six hours and 42 minutes, for being “harmful content,” and a bit of turbulence in terms of price that saw BTC swing from 5-7% in each direction over a few hours, things have gone pretty much as to be expected so far.
An ominous message
Eagle-eyed observers did, however, note that as the 629,000 block was mined, a message was inserted by f2pool, reading:
“NYTimes 09/Apr/2020 With $2.3T Injection, Fed’s Plan Far Exceeds 2008 Rescue.”
This echoes a note left in the Genesis block in 2009, by the enigmatic creator of Bitcoin (BTC) Satoshi Nakamoto. That note read:
“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.”
Nakamoto was referencing the then unprecedented rescue package aimed at staving off global economic collapse following the 2008 Financial Crisis. F2pool’s message is referencing the now planned rescue package to try to stave off economic collapse due to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis.
Many have noted that Bitcoin was itself born out of the ashes of the Financial Crisis, and that it looks like it may well ‘come of age’ in the now unfolding catastrophe – which many expect to be far worse than any previous crisis in modern history.
Indeed, as we speculated a few weeks ago, with the world on the brink of economic collapse, Bitcoin’s ‘moment of truth’ could well be approaching.
Bitcoin price to rocket in post-halving world rocked by economic chaos?
Of course, some have gone further, with gun toting libertarian, tax fugitive, presidential candidate and outspoken crypto advocate John McAfee warning the “world is collapsing”, fiat currencies will implode within months, and imploring people to “buy peanut butter.”
However, McAfee isn’t the only one expecting chaos in the traditional economy to power Bitcoin to record levels. Last week former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager, and current Global Macro Investor CEO, Raoul Pal, said the likelihood of $1M BTC was higher than ever.
Just days previously, Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, also weighed in with a prediction that there was more than a 50/50 chance of Bitcoin hitting $500K by August 2021. While crypto analyst PlanB also used a modified Stock-to-Flow model to predict prices reaching $288K by the end of 2020.
And, lets not forget, now incarcerated Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht’s recent prediction of $333 million BTC within a few years!
The halving – a ‘non-event’, or is that missing the real point?
Of course, there are plenty of professional crypto analysts and casual observers who consider the latest halving will turn out to be a non-event. And, they could very well be right, in a certain way.
For, though the basic fundamentals seem to dictate that if you halve the supply of something, or make it twice as expensive to mine, scarcity should result in the price rising, anyone who’s been exposed to the world of Bitcoin (BTC) for some time will know that things don’t always follow logic.
However, we can’t help but feel that most of those focusing on arguing how the halving itself is a non-event, are still talking from a pre-COVID-19 crisis point-of-view.
One of the most interesting things about the current COVID-19 crisis is that it is unfolding something like a train crash in super-slow motion. For generations raised on 90-minute Hollywood blockbusters, the apocalypse is expected to be quick and dramatic, meaning the COVID-19 induced economic collapse is still hazy, if not invisible, to most.
With hundreds of millions of workers in developed countries still on subsidised furloughs, and millions of others still employed by companies trying desperately to hang on to staff, plus all activity slowed to a crawl by lockdowns, the true scale of the economic catastrophe approaching has not dawned on the majority of people.
Judging by the scale of the rescue packages being prepared, and the gargantuan economic forces that have already been unleashed and are hurtling down the track towards the unsuspecting train passengers, this crisis could well tip the traditional financial, economic and societal systems into an unrecoverable “death spiral.”
Given its timing, there is simply no way that this halving can be looked at in isolation. It is inextricably linked to the wider global picture. Because, after all is said and done, our civilization is underpinned by confidence and faith in the systems we rely on. If they collapse, then Bitcoin (BTC) could well find itself perfectly placed to become a much-needed rock of stability, then all bets are off, and Ulbricht’s prediction doesn’t seem so far-fetched.
Its physics.
This information does not constitute investment advice and features the opinion of the author only. It does not necessarily reflect the views of Pentagon Digital Limited or its affiliates or associates.
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