Here at AYO.NEWS we were among the very first to predict global travel bans and lockdowns due to the COVID-19 crisis, publishing a piece on 29 January – when most mainstream media had yet to even run a story on the virus. 

Now, in July, it seems many are assuming the crisis is all but over and life can get back to “normal.” But is this jumping the gun?

Virus mutates, herd immunity a pipe dream

Since January, we’ve been tracking the crisis closely, as it went from a regional Chinese problem to a global pandemic with unprecedented economic implications. Though responses have varied country-by-country, and region-by-region, and millions have now been infected, the virus at least appears to be less lethal than first feared, and mainly a danger to the elderly or those with underlying conditions. 

However, four very concerning aspects of COVID-19 have also become clear. 

• It has now mutated into literally dozens of different strains, all of which seem to be circulating.
• The much touted “herd immunity” seems to be a pipe dream – as researchers believe only a tiny fraction of people have developed any immunity, and even then it only lasts for a few months – rendering the idea of “immunity passports” dead.
• Researchers believe it has mutated to become up to 10x more contagious than the original outbreak in Wuhan. 
• Scientists believe it is truly airborne – rather than simply riding on large droplets – meaning it can spread through air conditioning systems, vents, and in any enclosed space. 

“Not even close to being over”

However, the primary reason for writing this article is as a warning. In many parts of the world, especially Europe, lockdown fatigue has set-in and the economic paralysis has got so bad that governments are lifting restrictions. But, as we see it, the crisis is far from over. 

For months many experts have been warning that the COVID-19 pandemic would likely take the form of multiple waves, and that the first wouldn’t necessarily be the worst. In fact, if you look back to the 1918-19 pandemic, the first wave was much milder than the second. Some experts have even said there could be a dozen waves or more, and last years. 

In fact, just last week World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned the COVID-19 pandic is actually speeding up globally, and that worst could be yet to come, saying:

“We all want this to be over. We all want to get on with our lives. But the hard reality is this is not even close to being over.”

Even those putting faith in the development of a vaccine have cautioned that it may take years to develop, and even then probably won’t be effective for more than one of the multiple strains now in circulation. Others say that the vaccine is a red herring as it will be rendered obsolete by such a rapidly evolving virus long before it is deployed. 

Wishful thinking, but lockdowns returning

Here in Malta, Europe’s iGaming and blockchain hub, despite the airport only reopening to limited flights on 1 July, and not reopening fully until later in the month, local media and politicians are talking about COVID-19 in the past tense, as if it is no longer an ongoing global emergency.

Some physical industry events have even been announced for later in the year. This despite the crisis still worsening globally, and an increasing likelihood of another wave hitting Europe within months, forcing more lockdowns and travel bans. 

Over the past few weeks we’ve already seen several countries including China, South Korea, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom reintroduce regional lockdowns affecting hundreds of thousands of people – with more seeming imminent. 

Across the Atlantic, in the United States the virus is raging, with record daily infection numbers, and several states including Texas and California reintroducing lockdown measures. Down under, Australia is trying to get a grip on potentially explosive outbreaks in Melbourne – taking the extreme step of introducing “hard lockdowns” (total lockdowns with no warning, confining people to their homes) for specific areas, and closing the state border between Victoria and New South Wales – the first time in 100 years. 

And, as for travel, despite much talk of “air bridges”, plans are already descending into farce, with many countries retaining border closures and specific restrictions. In the UK, Scotland, which is opposed to lifting lockdown measures, has even threatened to introduce border controls with England, causing much concern about the disintegration of the UK – something already on the cards due to Brexit. 

Even those who are travelling internationally are finding travel insurance companies are specifically excluding anything connected to COVID-19, and with many airlines on the edge of bankruptcy, are running the risk of being stranded due to carriers collapsing.

Where things really stand, and what it means for the industry

It’s understandable that countries like Malta are desperate to portray everything as getting “back to normal”, and businesses that rely on events are optimistically pressing ahead with plans, but in reality it is likely to end in tears. 

On the plus side, we have proven that with strict lockdowns, we can stop the spread of COVID-19. But the truth is that nothing else has changed. There is no vaccine, and as we already mentioned, the virus has mutated into many different strains, and appears to have got much more contagious.

In fact, the only thing that has really changed is that back in January the virus was spreading from one epicentre to the rest of the world. Now it is spreading from hundreds of hotspots. 

Given that there appears to be little or no “herd immunity” developing, the simple logic is that, as lockdowns are lifted and international travel resumes, we will see a relapse into severe outbreaks, leading to more lockdowns and travel bans. Also, because many governments were criticised for being “too slow to act” before, these lockdowns will most likely come with no warning – just like in Australia. 

As far back as January it became clear that the typical incubation period of the COVID-19 virus is far longer than officials have admitted – much more likely 2-4 weeks, rather than the 3-5 days. This means there will be a considerable lag time from the lifting of measures until we start to notice significant outbreaks again. 

So, with the lifting of lockdown measures and resumption of international travel, it is likely we will see increasing outbreaks over the next few months, with more and more regional and city-wide lockdowns. These will soon morph into the re-imposition of national lockdowns. And, by September, we will probably be back at square one. 

Our advice:

• Operators should remain focused on expanding and improving their non-real-life sports related offerings like online casino, esports and virtual sports
• All businesses should retain remote working for the foreseeable future
• Business travel should still be avoided
• Live events should remain postponed until the crisis has truly passed

Prepare for more

Of course, this is all framed in the context of trying to stop the virus. There is also a strong argument that, given the fact that we have no way of stopping the virus that doesn’t involve destroying large parts of the global economy and triggering social disorder, we should just forget all lockdowns and carry on as normal regardless of the toll the virus takes. 

This may well be the most pragmatic approach in the long-term, but in the emotionally-driven society we live, it will never be accepted. So, we can safely assume governments will attempt to stop the spread of the virus again. Wash, rinse, repeat. 

Basically, this is just a respite. Prepare for more. 

Just last week Pierre Lindh of iGaming Next Malta explained why organisers have decided not to host any mass conferences for the rest of the year, despite now being legally allowed to do so. 

This article features the opinion of the author and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pentagon Digital Limited or its affiliates or associates. 

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