2021: WILL VACCINES MEAN A QUICK RETURN TO NORMALITY?

2020 started pretty much like any regular year, but soon devolved into something that even Hollywood screenwriters would have deemed far-fetched.

The planet was brought to the brink of World War III, Australia nearly burned down, the President of the United States was almost impeached… and that was before the main show even started. 

Enter COVID-19

Back in January 2020, if you’d have said that by the end of the year, global travel would have effectively ground to a halt, people wouldn’t be able to visit shops, bars, restaurants, cinemas, gyms, or even give their granny a hug, we’d all be wearing face masks, and every high street would be full of dystopian warning signs and street markings ordering everyone to stay 2m from everyone else, you would have been classed as a lunatic. 

But, here we are, at the very end of 2020, and all this and plenty more is the new reality we all live with. Economies are ruined, countries have racked up unfathomable amounts of debt, unprecedented mass employment is being staved off only by unsustainable public spending, education systems are in tatters, mental health is in crisis, and yet still the masses tow the line fed out by governments.

And, this is global. Everywhere populations are being subjected to rolling lockdowns and other restrictions, and having their civil liberties systematically removed – civil liberties that millions have fought and died to protect. All for a virus that, supposedly, isn’t much more dangerous than many other viruses we live with and have never reacted like this for. Indeed, authorities around the world are using highly dubious statistical techniques on a daily basis, presenting rises in ‘positive’ test results as conclusive evidence of a growing crisis – despite it being widely accepted the majority of the tests used can be wildly inaccurate, and ignoring the obvious fact that if you massively ramp up testing, you will get more positives. 

Indeed, there seems to be a complete absence of logic or balance. While the number of ‘COVID deaths’ are clearly rising, official sources rarely distinguish between those whose primary cause of death was COVID-19, and those who merely died while having some COVID-19 virus in them. That is a big difference. Someone could have a cold virus in their system at the time they died of a heart attack, but no one would seriously later say that person died of the cold. But COVID-19, apparently, is different. Everyone who dies with it, is used to bump up the statistics to present to the people. 

It’s almost like they want to encourage fear and hysteria, to give them an excuse to maintain, and even extend, the draconian powers they are now wielding over the populace. 

What can we really expect from 2021?

So, what is going on? At this point it’s impossible to say. Have all the world’s governments collectively lost the plot, and this is all just one big overreaction? Do the powers that be know something about the virus, and potential long-term implications of being infected, that they aren’t telling us – hence the seeming overreactions? Or is it all just ‘smoke and mirrors’ and being used as an excuse to enact things that would previously have been unthinkable, in preparation for something much, much bigger?

One thing that seems pretty certain is that the authorities in most countries have been very keen to present the much vaunted vaccines as a way out of the crisis. However, scratch the surface and you’ll soon see that most people completely misunderstand the subject. At this point I must stress I’m not an “anti-vaxxer”. I’ve had all the usual vaccines, and I absolutely understand how they are a very valuable tool for public health. But, the undeniable facts are that these vaccines have been rushed through. Note, I am not saying they are unsafe, but merely making a factual observation. Another factual observation, things that are rushed tend to be more likely to go wrong.

But, even if these vaccines are safe, their developers openly admit they don’t know if they actually stop transmission of the virus, just that they lessen symptoms. There’s also a very real possibility that they won’t work with some of the mutated strains that are either already in existence, or may emerge at any time. In a nutshell, the vaccines are not the ‘silver bullet’ most seem to assume. They may well play an important part in getting out of the crisis, but they will need to be used in conjunction with many of the measures we are currently experiencing… for a long time to come. 

iGaming, sports betting, esports and video games

For the industries we cover here at AYO.NEWS, like iGaming, sports betting, esports, and video games, this all has some fairly major implications, some good, some not so. 

First up, we shouldn’t expect to be getting back to in-person events and tournaments for a long time. Whether it’s a business convention, or live sports and esports events with in-venue spectators – except for the odd experiment here and there, they are probably off the cards for many more months, or maybe even years. Even if some areas lift restrictions temporarily, the constantly changing international, and even inter-regional, travel rules will probably either stop or discourage enough people from attending the events to make them commercially viable. 

Secondly, we’re going to see esports and the wider video game industry continue to explode. More people will be staying home, meaning more people will be both gaming themselves, watching esports, and consuming other related content. Even more non-endemic brands will be diverting their marketing spend away from traditional channels in an attempt to engage this growing cohort. This will make the sectors even more attractive to investors, and further drive the professionalisation and diversification of esports organisations, as they become all-encompassing lifestyle brands. Critically, it will also continue to fuel the merger of the video game, esports, music, and general entertainment spaces, into one digital metaverse. 

Thirdy, online gambling, both iGaming and sports betting, will continue to do well (unless sports totally shut down again) with something of a captive market thanks to restrictions on other forms of entertainment, along with the desire for escapism. However, this is a double-edged sword, because if operators are seen to be benefiting from the crisis, in many markets restrictions and regulations will be tightened – think Sweden. 

But, across all industries, there is another factor to consider. Despite the lockdowns and restrictions largely benefiting online businesses so far, as we venture into 2021 we need to consider the possibility that the withdrawal of generous wage subsidies and furlough schemes could lead to an explosion in unemployment. While people could spend on video games, merchandise, and gambling when they were at home and still getting paid, things may look very different if people’s bank accounts are empty. 

So, while we all hope we can see an end to the crisis within the next few months, businesses should be realistic and expect the status quo to continue for at least the first quarter of the new year. By then, we should have an inkling of how successful the vaccines are. However, even if they are successful, it will still take many more months for whole populations to be vaccinated. And, of course, if more ‘gain of function’ mutations emerge in the coming months, we could be back at square one. 

Basically, I’ll go against the grain here, and say 2021 won’t see things get back to normal. At best we will see some gradual progress, but the coming year will still very much be a digital one. 

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